Shooter Pathway

Age	Pressure Applied	Psychological Shift
14	Peer exclusion, group rejection	Belonging erodes; early warning signs emerge
15	Humiliation, bullying, failure experiences	Loneliness and burdensomeness climb
16	Chronic isolation, family rejection, self-harm	Acquired capability and hopelessness rise
17	Reinforced isolation, repeated shaming	Grievance consolidates; risk accelerates
18	Acute humiliation and romantic rejection	Final trigger in the no-intervention path
Intervention windows	Mentorship, counseling, peer inclusion	Earlier support shows larger protective impact

End-State Assertions (Age 18)

assert!(
    tb_no_intervention > baseline_tb + 0.15,
    "No intervention: TB should increase"
);
assert!(
    pb_no_intervention > baseline_pb + 0.10,
    "No intervention: PB should increase"
);
assert!(
    hopelessness_no_intervention > baseline_hopelessness + 0.15,
    "No intervention: Hopelessness should increase"
);
assert!(
    ac_no_intervention > baseline_ac + 0.10,
    "No intervention: AC should increase from self-harm"
);
assert!(
    tb_age_15_intervention < tb_no_intervention - 0.10,
    "Age 15 intervention: TB should be significantly lower"
);
assert!(
    ac_age_15_intervention < ac_no_intervention - 0.10,
    "Age 15 intervention: AC should be much lower"
);
assert!(
    tb_age_16_intervention < tb_no_intervention - 0.05,
    "Age 16 intervention: TB should be lower than no intervention"
);
assert!(
    pb_age_16_intervention < pb_no_intervention - 0.05,
    "Age 16 intervention: PB should be lower than no intervention"
);
assert!(
    tb_age_17_intervention < tb_no_intervention - 0.02,
    "Age 17 intervention: TB should be somewhat lower"
);
assert!(
    tb_age_15_intervention < tb_age_16_intervention,
    "Earlier intervention should outperform mid-trajectory"
);
assert!(
    tb_age_16_intervention <= tb_age_17_intervention + 0.01,
    "Age 16 intervention should be better than age 17"
);